How NFL Point Spreads Work
The spread is a handicap, not a prediction. Here is what the number means, why 3 and 7 matter more than any other figure, and what you are really paying at -110.
A point spread handicaps the stronger team so that both sides of a bet attract roughly equal money. If a team is listed at -3.5, it must win by four or more for that bet to cash. The underdog at +3.5 wins the bet by losing by three or fewer, or by winning outright.
What -110 actually costs you
Most spreads are priced at -110 on both sides. You stake 110 to win 100. That extra 10 is the sportsbook margin, usually called the vig or juice. Because you pay it on every bet, a spread bettor needs to win about 52.4 percent of the time simply to break even.
Why 3 and 7 are the key numbers
NFL games are scored in threes and sevens, so final margins cluster there. Three is by far the most common margin of victory, with seven second. A line that sits exactly on 3 is worth much more than one at 2.5 or 3.5, which is why books charge extra to move across it. Buying a half point from 3.5 down to 3 typically costs more juice than buying from 6.5 to 6.
How lines move
Opening numbers are set by the book and then adjusted as money arrives and as news breaks. Quarterback injuries move NFL spreads more than any other factor. Weather matters most for totals rather than spreads. If you like a number, taking it early often beats waiting, because the price you get is the only part of a bet you control.
