NFL Totals: Betting the Over and Under
The total is a forecast of combined points. Pace, weather and red-zone efficiency move it more than raw offensive rankings do.
A total, or over/under, is the sportsbook estimate of the combined points both teams will score. Bet the over if you expect more, the under if you expect fewer. Like spreads, totals are usually priced near -110 per side.
What actually moves a total
Pace of play is the most reliable driver. A team that runs more plays per game creates more scoring chances for both sides. Beyond that, red-zone efficiency matters more than yards gained, because drives that stall at the 20 produce three points instead of seven.
Weather
Wind is the weather factor that moves totals most, since it affects both the passing game and field goal range. Rain and cold have smaller effects than most bettors assume. Books adjust for forecasts, so an obvious wind game will already be priced in by kickoff.
Alternative totals and team totals
If you have an opinion on only one side of the game, a team total lets you bet that team alone rather than the combined figure. Alternative totals move the line up or down in exchange for a different price, which is useful when you want a specific number rather than the one on the board.
